News
December 21, 2025
The Myth of the End-of-Year Slowdown: Why Dubai Real Estate Is Defying Gravity (Again)
For years, a persistent myth has circulated among investors and market watchers: “Wait until December. The market sleeps during the holidays.”
The theory goes that as the festive season approaches, decision-makers fly out, transaction volumes dip, and the market takes a collective breath before the New Year. If you have been waiting on the sidelines for this “seasonal dip,” the latest Dubai real estate market trends for November 2025 have some bad news for you.
The end-of-year slowdown is officially a myth.
In fact, November 2025 didn’t just ignore the holiday lull—it shattered records, posting numbers that would be impressive for a peak-season month, let alone the tail end of the year. Here is why the Dubai market isn’t slowing down, backed by the raw data from the last 30 days.
November 2025 Transaction Volume: A Historical High
If the market were cooling down for the holidays, we would see Dubai property transaction volumes taper off. Instead, we saw the exact opposite.
November 2025 recorded a staggering 19,019 transactions, a 30% increase compared to the same time in November 2024. To put that in perspective, this single month generated sales worth AED 64.7 billion—a massive 49.6% jump in value year-on-year.
This isn’t just “momentum”; it is a structural shift. The market is accelerating exactly when traditional wisdom says it should be braking. The driver? A relentless appetite for off-plan luxury and mid-market stock that doesn’t care what month it is on the calendar.
Secondary Market & Rental Yields: The Battle for Income and Stability
One of the most telling metrics from last month wasn’t just how many units sold, but how much they sold for.
While transaction volume grew by 30%, the total sales value grew by nearly 50%. This disparity tells a crucial story: buyers are purchasing bigger, better, and more expensive assets.
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Villas: The average sale price for a villa hit AED 4.1 million, a 30.7% increase compared to last year.
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Apartments: Prices averaged AED 1.4 million, up 14% year-on-year.
We also saw ultra-prime transactions that defy seasonal trends, including an AED 203 million apartment sale at Jumeirah Residences Asora Bay. High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs) are not waiting for January to deploy capital; they are securing assets now before 2026 property price lists kick in.
The Rental Market Is Not Sleeping
The “slowdown” myth often extends to leasing, with the assumption that tenants don’t move during the holidays. The data disagrees.
The Dubai rental market remains fiercely competitive, driven by a population boom that has outpaced supply.
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Apartment Rents: Up 11.9% year-on-year, averaging AED 75,000 annually.
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Villa Rents: Up 7.5%, averaging AED 189,000 annually.
Landlords are seeing yields tighten slightly as asset prices rise, but gross yields remain healthy at 5.3-5.7% for apartments and 4.5-4.8% for villas. This rental pressure ensures that investors buying in Q4 are stepping into a cash-flow-positive environment from Day 1.
Why History Repeats Itself (December Outlook)
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Population Influx: Dubai surpassed 4 million residents in 2025, creating a constant baseline of demand.
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FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out): With capital appreciation forecasted to continue into 2026, buyers are rushing to lock in 2025 prices.
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Developer Aggression: Major launches are continuing deep into Q4, with developers capitalizing on high investor confidence.
This isn’t an anomaly; it’s a trend. Looking back at December 2024, the market recorded 15,108 transactions—the strongest December on record at the time. The pattern is clear: Dubai has evolved from a seasonal market into a mature, year-round global hub.
The drivers keeping the engine running through December include:
The Outcome: What This Means for You
If you are holding back hoping for a quiet December to snag a “deal,” you are playing a risky game. The data shows that waiting often results in paying a higher premium in Q1.
The “end-of-year slowdown” is a relic of the past. The smart money is active right now, leveraging the holiday period not to rest, but to race ahead.
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